5th November 2013 9:00
By Blue Tutors
New figures released by the exam board OCR have shown that half of A’ Level grade predictions are inaccurate. Given that predicted grades form a significant part of universities’ decisions to award places to sixth-form applicants, the revelation by the exam board will be a significant cause for concern. OCR has released a statement which claims that just 48.29% of the grades predicted by teachers are accurate, with many predicting that their students will achieve one or even two grades higher than they actually attained in their final exams. In 2012, 91.9% of the predicted grades were correct to within one grade, but more than 15,000 predictions were more than one grade out.
A key concern is that teachers are generally predicting higher grades for their students, with 38.7% of predicted grades higher than those achieved, compared with 13% of grades being under predicted. The statistics also showed that teachers’ predictions for higher grades were more accurate than lower grades, with teachers predicting 64.36% of A* grades, 62.94% A grades and 59.1% of B grades accurately. For the lower grades, just 46.6% of Cs, 32.06% Ds and 26.94% of Es were predicted accurately. According to the records produced by OCR, predictions have become increasingly inaccurate since 2011, which is in part down to the introduction of the A* grade. Independent and grammar schools were more accurate at predicting grades than state schools, with further education colleges proving to be the least accurate.
The statistics have raised concerns about university applications, as the majority of students apply to their chosen universities on the merit of their predicted grades. Currently, students submit their applications in their second year of sixth-form studies, which means that universities must make their decision based on references, personal statement and predicted grades. Some universities take AS level results as an indicator of a student’s likely final grade, although under new plans A’ Levels will only be graded at the end of a two year course of study.